今年冬天全球原油供应将大幅收紧油价飙升

•欧盟对海上原油出口的禁运和七国集团(G7)对原油价格上限的决定都将在不到一个月的时间内生效  

•尽管全球经济放缓和原油需求疲软限制了价格，但即将到来的供应中断可能会推高油价  

•炼油产能不足和原油供应中断也将推高燃料价格，尤其是柴油价格

中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网11月8日报道，据路透社的约翰·肯普称，对冲基金再次看好原油，并在期货市场上大量买入。上周，布伦特原油购买量达到2200万桶，西得克萨斯中质原油购买量达到1500万桶。  

然而，由于欧盟的禁运和七国集团(G7)的价格上限，到今年年底几乎肯定会发生的事情是，原油将变得比现在更贵。也许更令人担忧的是，随着原油供应进一步收紧，而新的炼油厂又没有出现，今冬燃料——尤其是柴油——将变得更加昂贵。

Argus Media柴油定价主管本尼迪克特·乔治对《华尔街日报》表示：“欧洲将支付这些燃料生产国提出的任何要求，而且价格会非常非常高。”“如果发生意外情况，燃料价格将迅速飙升，因为届时没有生产国可以依靠。” 

事实上，各个地区的馏分油库存都低于历史平均水平，尤其是美国，美国也是向欧盟出口石油产品的主要国家之一。这意味着油价将继续处于高位。另一方面，对柴油的需求持续强劲，因为这种燃料在世界各地被广泛用于货物运输。

市场一位石油分析师对《华尔街日报》说，欧洲可能会从美国进口更多燃料，减少对南美和非洲的出口。当然，这将帮助欧洲应对燃料危机，但欧洲将在两个不同的大陆上引起连锁反应。  

展望未来几个月的油价，还需要考虑欧佩克+的大幅减产。一些人预计，原油禁运将导致全球原油日供应量减少大约100万桶。欧佩克+将其原油日产量再削减100万桶。这意味着，在美国页岩产量增长也在放缓的同时，全球原油日供应量将减少200万桶。

在这个背景下，惯例交易商可能会继续购买原油，无论疫情政策的前景如何，这些政策是今年油价的主要威慑因素。全球原油供应即将收紧，如果七国集团成功实施价格上限，而停止向遵守该上限的买家出售原油，那么原油供应将大幅收紧。生活成本将变得更加昂贵。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

Oil Prices Are Primed To Spike This Winter

·The EU embargo on seaborne Russian crude oil exports and the G7 price cap on Russian oil are both less than a month away.

·While a global economic slowdown and weak oil demand have capped prices, looming supply disruptions will likely send oil prices higher.

A lack of refinery capacity and crude oil disruptions will drive the price of fuels higher as well, particularly the price of diesel.

Hedge funds once again like oil, and are buying it on the futures market in considerable volumes, according to Reuters’ John Kemp. Last week, the buying reached 22 million barrels of Brent crude and 15 million barrels of West Texas Intermediate.

Yet, with an EU embargo and a G7 price cap, what will almost certainly happen by the end of the year is that oil will become more expensive than it is now. Perhaps more worryingly, fuels - especially diesel - will become more expensive as the supply of crude oil tightens further while no new refineries are on the horizon.

The fuel situation is going to become a lot more complicated in February, too, when the EU’sfuels embargo comes into effect. Currently, the European Union is importing some 400,000 barrels daily of Russian diesel, according to a Wall Street Journal report, as well as 1.7 million barrels daily of diesel from other suppliers. This 400,000 bpd will need to be replaced come February 5. And it will fuel higher inflation.

“Europe’s going to pay whatever these producers ask, and it’s going to be very, very high,” Benedict George, head of diesel pricing at Argus Media, told the WSJ. “If something unexpected happens, the price will go very high, very quickly because no one has anything to fall back on.”

Indeed, distillate stocks are below historic averages across regions, notably in the United States, which is also a major exporter of oil products to the European Union. This means prices will remain elevated because the only new refining capacity is in the Middle East, and it is limited. Demand for diesel fuel, on the other hand, is consistently strong because the fuel is used across the world for freight transport.

According to one oil analyst, who spoke to the WSJ, Europe could import more fuels from the U.S., and reduce exports to South America and Africa. This would help it cope, of course, but it will cause a ripple effect on two different continents.

There is also the OPEC+ production cut to consider when looking ahead to the next couple of months in oil. Some expect that the oil embargo will lead to a decline of about 1 million bpd in global supply. OPEC+ is cutting another 1 million bpd from its collective production. That’s 2 million bpd in lower oil supply at a time when production growth in the U.S. shale patch is also slowing down.